Only 7 days of oil left! Will Saudi Arabia's move lead to record-high petrol and diesel prices?

Saudi Arabia's main ports have only 5-7 days of stock left, allowing exports to continue for only a few days. Consequently, the supply crisis is once again looming.

 

 

Saudi oil supply crisis

Saudi Arabia's exportable oil stocks are rapidly depleting. Experts say that backup oil stored at the Saudi port of Yanbu and at terminals in Egypt is currently maintaining supplies.

But experts predict that this stockpile will be depleted in just 5 to 7 days. If this happens, global supply could decline by up to 4%. This means that 4 to 5 million barrels of crude oil, out of the total daily global trade, would suddenly disappear from the market.

Why did the supply suffer?

The Strait of Hormuz was already blocked due to the US-Iran conflict. Saudi Arabia had been using the East-West pipeline for oil supplies, which had to be shut down as a precaution following last Friday's drone attacks. Experts say that if this pipeline is not reopened soon, there will be a severe shortage in the global oil market.

Reuters, citing sources, reported that the damage to the Saudi Arabian pipeline could take five to six weeks to repair. Some suggest it could be fixed sooner, and that pumping could be partially resumed while the repairs are underway.

Saudi Arabia's lifeblood, the East-West Pipeline

The 1,200-kilometer-long, 5-million-barrel-per-day East-West Pipeline has been Saudi Arabia's lifeline, shielding global exports from the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure due to the US-Iran conflict. Using this pipeline, which runs through the desert, Saudi Arabia transports approximately 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil—about 4% of global supply—to Yanbu, a port on the Red Sea. However, according to industry sources familiar with Saudi exports, the pipeline's closure has left Yanbu with only 5-7 days' worth of export stocks.