Weak global bullion trends, softer precious metal demand, and technical indicators keep pressure on gold and silver futures

Gold prices extended their decline in the domestic futures market on July 15, with the benchmark contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) falling below the ₹1.42 lakh per 10 grams mark. Silver futures also traded lower as investors remained cautious amid mixed global economic signals and ongoing geopolitical developments.

Market analysts believe that while easing U.S. inflation has reduced expectations of an immediate interest rate hike, rising crude oil prices and uncertainty in West Asia continue to influence investor sentiment across commodity markets.

Here's a closer look at the latest market movement and what experts expect next.

MCX Gold Falls Below ₹1.42 Lakh

Gold futures for August delivery on MCX declined by ₹983, or 0.69%, to around ₹1.41 lakh per 10 grams during Wednesday's trading session.

The contract recorded a turnover of 1,289 lots, reflecting active participation despite the overall bearish mood in the bullion market.

The decline follows weakness in international gold prices, which continued to weigh on domestic precious metals.

Silver Futures Also Trade Lower

Silver prices mirrored gold's performance, with futures contracts remaining under pressure throughout the trading session.

According to market participants, cautious investor sentiment and weaker overseas bullion prices contributed to the decline in silver as traders avoided aggressive buying ahead of key global economic developments.

International Gold and Silver Prices Decline

Global bullion markets also witnessed selling pressure.

During international trading:

• COMEX Gold declined by $23.90, or approximately 0.59%, to around $4,045.80 per ounce.
• COMEX Silver slipped nearly 0.46%, trading close to $58.83 per ounce.

The weakness in overseas markets influenced domestic commodity prices, leading to lower trading levels on MCX.

Inflation Data and Crude Oil Create Mixed Signals

Recent U.S. inflation figures showed softer-than-expected price growth, reducing immediate expectations of aggressive monetary tightening.

However, investors remain concerned that rising crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in West Asia, could revive inflationary pressures in the coming months.

Higher energy prices have the potential to increase overall inflation, which may influence future monetary policy decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

This combination of factors has created uncertainty across global commodity markets.

Technical Indicators Suggest Continued Weakness

Market experts believe that gold's technical chart continues to indicate a cautious outlook.

According to analysts, MCX gold is currently trading below both its 21-day and 55-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), a pattern generally viewed as a sign of continued bearish momentum.

As long as prices remain below these important technical levels, analysts believe upward moves may continue to face selling pressure.

Expert View on Gold Outlook

Commodity market analysts suggest that traders should closely monitor technical support levels before taking fresh positions.

According to market experts, the current trend favors a cautious approach, with some analysts recommending a "sell on rise" strategy until stronger recovery signals emerge.

Technical projections indicate that if selling pressure continues, gold prices could test lower support levels near ₹1.36 lakh per 10 grams on MCX.

However, future price movements will largely depend on domestic and global economic developments.

Key Factors Investors Should Watch

Several events could influence gold and silver prices in the coming weeks, including:

• Upcoming U.S. economic data releases.
• Statements from the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding interest rates.
• Crude oil price movements.
• Geopolitical developments in West Asia.
• Strength of the U.S. dollar.
• Bond yield trends in global markets.

Any significant changes in these factors may lead to increased volatility in precious metals.

What This Means for Investors

Gold remains an important long-term portfolio diversification asset, but short-term price movements are likely to remain sensitive to global macroeconomic developments.

Investors considering fresh purchases may benefit from monitoring support levels, central bank policy signals, and international market trends before making investment decisions.

As market conditions remain fluid, analysts recommend maintaining a disciplined investment approach and avoiding decisions based solely on short-term price fluctuations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Commodity prices are subject to market risks and may change rapidly. Investors should consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.