Iran War: According to Kpler, imports from Saudi Arabia could continue to average 600,000 to 700,000 barrels per day in the coming years. This could be the most stable and largest import level from a single country in the past six years.

Tensions between Iran, Israel, and America escalated the crisis.

Middle East Tensions: While India had reduced crude oil imports from Russia following high US tariffs and pressure from President Donald Trump, New Delhi may now be considering alternative strategies amid the ongoing West Asia tensions and supply uncertainty. Russia was India's largest crude oil supplier in February, followed by Saudi Arabia. India's imports from West Asian countries increased to nearly 1 million barrels per day, from around 0.77 million barrels per day in January.

Fluctuations in imports from Russia

According to global data and analytics firm Kpler, India imported about 1 million barrels per day of crude oil from Russia in February. This figure was around 1.1 million barrels per day in January. In December of last year, it was around 1.2 million barrels per day. Although imports have declined slightly, Russia remains India's major supplier.

According to Kpler, imports from Saudi Arabia could continue to hover around 600,000 to 700,000 barrels per day in the coming years. This could be the most stable and largest import level from a single country in the last six years. According to Sumit Ritolia, research analyst for refining and modeling at Kpler, India's oil dependence on West Asia has increased in the last two to three months, as supplies from Gulf countries have increased following a decrease in imports from Russia.

What do experts say?

Currently, 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels of oil are arriving in India daily from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait through the Strait of Hormuz. However, if regional tensions escalate, cargo movement through this sea route could be affected. Tensions with Iran have increased shipment uncertainty in West Asia. Consequently, Indian refiners may now look to alternative sources, such as Africa, the United States, or Latin America, to mitigate supply chain risks.

India is currently pursuing a balanced oil import strategy. Competitively priced supplies from Russia, stable supplies from the Gulf countries, and the search for potential alternative sources will determine the direction of the oil market in the coming months, largely dependent on the geopolitical situation in West Asia and global prices.